Future-State Research & Ownership Blueprints
Own the future before it becomes obvious.
Conviction Thesis develops high-conviction views of plausible future states and identifies the specific assets positioned to own them.
The research starts with the future, tests the assumptions required for it to emerge, determines where value will accrue and concludes with an actionable Ownership Blueprint.
Conviction Thesis 001 · July 2026
Industrial Intelligence
Europe’s AI Sovereignty Layer
Europe has lost the AI race everyone is watching.
But the most valuable AI of the next decade may not run in a chat window. It may run in factories, power grids, robots and defence systems—through operational data, certified infrastructure and physical assets Europe still owns in depth.
The market is pricing the model race. This thesis examines whether value will accrue to the industrial-intelligence control layer beneath it.
METHOD
How a thesis is built.
Every issue moves through the same four stages — from a concrete future state to the specific assets that would own it.
Future State
What concrete future do we believe will emerge?
Assumption Stack
What must be true, and what would make the thesis wrong?
Value Accrual
Which bottlenecks, enablers and control points capture the economics?
Ownership Blueprint
Which specific assets provide the most compelling ownership exposure?
SIGNALS
Conviction Signals
Conviction Signals will track whether the assumptions behind each thesis are strengthening, weakening or changing.
SUBSCRIBE
Receive the next Conviction Thesis
New theses examine a specific future state, test the assumptions behind it and identify the most compelling ways to own it.
Subscribers will also receive periodic Conviction Signals tracking whether existing theses are strengthening or weakening.
No daily news cycle. No generic trend summaries.
AUTHOR